India’s Economy Surpasses That Of Great Britain

Mr. Shah is a Schwarzman Scholar at Tsinghua University specializing in economics and a former McKinsey consultant.

As Theresa May returned home from her unsuccessful visit to India, she would bear witness to another relegation for the UK: India’s economy will be larger than the UK’s, for the first time in more than 100 years. This dramatic shift has been driven by India’s rapid economic growth over the past 25 years as well as Britain’s recent woes, particularly with the Brexit. Once expected to overtake the UK GDP in 2020, the surpasso has been accelerated by the nearly 20% decline in the value of the pound over the last 12 months, consequently UK’s 2016 GDP of GBP 1.87 trillion converts to $2.29 trillion at exchange rate of ~GBP 0.81 per $1, whereas India’s GDP of INR 153 trillion converts to $2.30 trillion at exchange rate of ~INR 66.6 per $1. Furthermore, this gap is expected to widen as India grows at 6 to 8% p.a. compared to UK’s growth of 1 to 2% p.a. until 2020, and likely beyond. Even if the currencies fluctuate that modify these figures to rough equality, the verdict is clear that India’s economy has surpassed that of the UK based on future growth prospects.

This marks a significant landmark in India’s economic history, whose story over the last 150 years can be split into three parts: a period of divergence, of relative stagnation and a period of convergence with respect to the economy of the UK. Divergence begins with the UK’s industrial revolution in the 18th century to India’s independence in 1947 when the UK’s growth significantly outpaced India’s. The period of stagnation extended from 1947 to 1991 where both India and the UK grew at roughly the same rate. This was despite India being independent, and was predominantly due to India’s misinformed choice of pursuing a closed, centrally planned, socialist economy. Convergence began in 1991, when India finally implemented market reforms, and continues to this day. During this period India has experienced much faster economic growth than the UK and has finally in 2016 overtaken it in absolute terms, although is still less than one-fifth that of the UK in per capita terms.

History teaches us that milestones are important, that they can help clarify and bring to light underlying long-term trends, as well as encourage people to shed their biases. Japan’s victory over Russia in 1905 is an illustrative example: The event helped break the conception of the inability of the East to militarily defeat a western power and also highlighted the economic rise of Japan that had gradually taken place over the second half of the 19th century. India’s overtaking of the UK’s GDP in 2016 could serve as a similar moment.

Official Site of Shanghai Financial Center

When you begin planning your wedding guest list, sit down with your fiancé and discuss what general wedding size you envision. Do you prefer a cozy affair or a huge party with every co-worker and distant relative present?

Then, write down a list of the people you definitely want to invite, and those you might include if you opt for a larger celebration. Don’t forget to give each set of parents a certain number of guests to invite. Keep in mind, you don’t need to feel obligated to invite all your parents’ friends or your friends’ children. Your wedding guest list should be about your greatest hits, not your latest hits.

As you build your guest list, keep in mind the following:

1. Traditionally, the guest list is divided equally between the bride and groom, but this also depends on the actual number of people each side of the family wishes to invite.

2. The general rule of thumb says to figure that only 80 percent of those invited will attend. However, don’t count on it.

3. If the bride’s family is paying for the wedding and the groom’s family wants to invite more guests than the original estimate, the groom’s family may offer to pay a proportional share of reception expenses.

4. It’s okay to invite an unmarried, unattached person without adding “and guest” to the invitation. It is not appropriate, however, to invite one-half of a married couple, one-half of a couple living together, or one-half of an engaged couple. If a single person is on the guest list and you know he or she is seeing someone seriously, it’s thoughtful to invite both.

5. If you don’t want children at the wedding or reception, don’t invite them. A wedding invitation only requests the presence of the people whose names actually appear on the envelope. If guests ask if they can bring their kids, give a diplomatic answer, such as, “Unfortunately, we can only invite a specific number of guests and are at the limit.” Then, be sure you don’t allow any exceptions. Your friends who were turned down will be upset to see other people’s children at the wedding.

6. Think carefully about sending wedding invitations to people you know cannot attend. This can look like a solicitation for wedding gifts. If there are people you would like to inform about the wedding but you know cannot attend, you can send them a wedding announcement the day after the wedding. Of course, if there are people you know will not or cannot attend, but who might feel slighted if they did not receive an invitation, then by all means send one.

7. Cutting back on your list is never easy and it always comes down to a judgment call, balancing who wanted the person invited and the relationship. You should never be in a position of having to cut close friends from your guest list. If you find yourself having to do that, you might want to consider scaling back on the design concept for the wedding reception.

Better Rules, Long IPO Wait Mean Secondary Market Boom For ‘Unicorns’

After the debacle that preceded the initial public offering of Facebook Inc in 2012, when the company’s stock changed hands at wildly varying prices and with little oversight, the market in secondary trading in shares of hot startups has made a strong comeback.

Regulators and the startups themselves have gradually tightened rules governing buying and selling shares, while a growing number of startups delaying their IPOs amid a wash of eager private capital has created a huge swell of demand among both buyers and sellers.

“A lot of companies learned from the headaches that Facebook had to deal with,” said Brian Feinstein, a partner at Bessemer Venture Partners, which has purchased early investor and employee shares in secondary transactions.

The market serves a few functions, allowing employees and founders at highly valued private companies, such as home-renting service Airbnb and ride-services firm Lyft, to cash in on some of their paper wealth, and letting institutional investors get a piece of the action. Early investors who are tired of waiting for a payout are selling shares in secondary trades, too.

With such demand, transaction volume on the secondary market has soared.

A new report to be published this week by Scenic Advisement, a San Francisco-based investment bank set up in 2013 to facilitate secondary stock transactions, pegs the total value of tradable shares among the top private U.S. companies at $35 billion. That is more than three times the $11 billion assigned to the asset class in 2011, Scenic said in the report. The bank is projecting a further jump to $38 billion next year.

Secondary market transactions more than doubled to $544 million in the first half of 2016 over the same period last year, according to Nasdaq Private Market, one venue for such trades, set up in 2014. It expects further growth in 2017.

Founders Circle, which has made secondary trades in shares of DocuSign, Pinterest and others, estimates a total of about $1.2 billion worth of secondary transactions this year, according to co-founder and managing director Chris Albinson. That is a dip from $1.6 billion last year, largely caused by a dearth in trading in the first quarter, but Albinson expects a year-on-year increase to $1.4 billion in 2017.

An Early Christmas Rally for European Stocks

After over 19 months of underperformance and losses, European stocks are closing the year with a sharp upside move.

The EURO STOXX® 50 Index, the benchmark for Eurozone equities, has gained 6.8% this month through Dec. 16, beating other major regions. The move equates to a monthly advance of 11.4%, a performance not seen in any calendar month since the global financial crisis ended. The STOXX® Europe 600 Index, the pan-European benchmark, has gained 5.3% in December.

Since reaching a record on Apr. 13, 2015, the blue-chip EURO STOXX 50 lost 16% through November this year while the STOXX 600 fell 13%, with investors citing concerns related to non-performing loans in the region and the challenge of populist parties. The STOXX® USA 900 Index, by comparison, climbed 6.6% in the period while the STOXX® Global 1800 Index fell 0.4%.

Donald Trump’s presidential victory in the US and the Italian government’s defeat in a national referendum in early December have confounded earlier expectations with their effect on markets. After initial volatility, the dust settled and with both political hurdles cleared, investors turned back to a region that shows the developed world’s lowest valuations.

According to Bank of America data, European stocks are trading at 14.2 times their estimated earnings for the next 12 months. That’s the lowest ratio among six developed regions, and compares with an average multiple of 16 times for all six markets and 17 times for US equities.

The recent uptrend may help revert outflows from European shares. Investors have pulled out almost 100 billion dollars from US-based European equities funds this year, according to data from Bank of America and EPFR Global. They have withdrawn 27.5 billion dollars from US equities funds.

Whether this is a short-term rebound from oversold levels or the beginning of a more sustained turnaround remains to be seen. PULSE ONLINE will feature a 2017 outlook on European and global stocks at the start of next year.

BOJ Keeps Policy On Hold, Brightens View Of Economy

The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady and took a more upbeat view of the economy on Tuesday, reinforcing market expectations that its future policy direction could be an increase – not a cut – in interest rates.

Reflecting a pick-up in emerging Asian demand and factory output, the central bank upgraded its language to signal its confidence that the economy is headed for a steady recovery.

“Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately as a trend,” the BOJ said in a statement announcing the policy decision. It also offered a brighter view on exports and output to say they were picking up.

But the central bank warned the impact of U.S. monetary policy on global markets was among risks to the outlook, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle could disrupt emerging market capital flows.

As widely expected, the BOJ kept unchanged its pledge to guide short-term rates at minus 0.1 percent and the 10-year government bond yield around zero percent.

“The global economy recovered earlier than expected and the yen is weakening. Tailwinds are blowing, and the BOJ can stand pat for a while,” said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at BNP Paribas.

Underscoring its optimism on the outlook, the central bank even revised up its view on private consumption – considered a soft spot for the Japanese economy, the world’s third largest.

“Consumption is moving on a firm note,” it said, a brighter view than last month when it said there were some weak signs.

At the previous meeting on Nov. 1, the BOJ said the economic trend was for moderate recovery, but slowing emerging market demand was weighing on exports and output.

FOCUS ON KURODA

Financial markets are focusing on what BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will say at his post-meeting news conference about the recent rise in yields.

Japanese long-term interest rates have risen in tandem with global bond yields on expectations of steady U.S. interest rate hikes and the perceived inflation-stoking policies of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.

This has tested the BOJ’s resolve to cap the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield around its zero percent target.

That in turn has led to some market expectations the BOJ may raise its target for the 10-year JGB yield, which briefly hit 0.1 percent last week, as early as next year.